When bioterrorism struck America - was this "Unrestricted Warfare"?
The Anthrax-laced letters following 9/11 only caused 5 deaths. But they exploited and intensified the fear and insecurity of the time. Despite a massive investigation, they remain unsolved.
Some have interpreted Unrestricted Warfare as predicting - or even plotting - the September 11th, 2001 attacks. It is true that it refers to the idea that planes could be used weapons, and Osama bin Laden is mentioned several times with evident admiration. One week after 9/11 saw the first of a series of bioterrorist acts designed to capitalize on the public fear and heightened sense of vulnerability - the anthrax-laced letters now commonly referred to as “Amerithrax”.
In all, 5 people death, 11 severe illnesses, and 22 total infections resulted. While the toll wasn’t huge, the psychological terror and economic damage caused was disproportionate. There were major disruptions to the postal system and government offices were repeatedly shut down for sterilization. People feared opening mail and avoided congregating in crowded places. Hoaxes spread wildly about anthrax in water supplies, on subways, in public buildings. Over 10,000 copycat letters were sent containing harmless powder, often resulting in panicky evacuations and hazmat responses.
The early phase of the investigation involved thousands of FBI agents and cast a wide net. Al-Qaeda was known to have been trying to procure biological weapons, but there were doubts over their access to the required strain and their capability to weaponize it. Some of the anthrax letters had the date “09-11-01” at the top and made Jihadist statements: “DEATH TO AMERICA. DEATH TO ISRAEL. ALLAH IS GREAT.” – but these are crude Islamist tropes anyone could have written. There were no florid Koranic verses or exhortations to the faithful.
One letter warned the opener to "TAKE PENACILIN [sic] NOW". The FBI assessed that this didn’t fit the Al-Qaeda modus operandi of causing maximum carnage. But for a while it suited the US administration to have Islamist terrorists – or their perceived state sponsors from the “Axis of Evil” – on the suspects list. The state actors suspected were Iraq (for which a case was being built for its for invasion) and to a lesser extent Libya, North Korea and Syria.
As time went on many suspects had been eliminated, but little progress had been made identifying the culprit. The investigating team was reduced to a core group of around 30 people. Investigators began to sharpen their focus on the scenario of a “lone wolf” US scientist who would have access to the right strain, and the expertise to weaponize it. The suspects included several scientific experts who had been assisting the FBI in its investigation.
The FBI spent years investigating one biodefense scientist, Steven Hatfill. They tapped his phone and repeatedly raiding his home - but never laid charges. Eventually he sued them. The case was settled for US$5.8 million.
Later their attention turned to an anthrax vaccine developer, Bruce Ivins, who worked for USAMRIID at Fort Detrick. Again, their investigation was heavy-handed. He was constantly surveilled, interrogated and had his house searched several times. He was removed from his workplace after claims he might be homicidal and pose a danger to colleagues. He was briefly hospitalized for depression. On 1st, August 2008 he apparently committed suicide with an overdose of Tylenol (although no autopsy was conducted to confirm this).
Five days after his death federal prosecutors declared him to have been the sole perpetrator of the crimes. But he was formally charged. A grand jury declined to indict him as the prosecution evidence was largely circumstantial. The FBI case relied heavily on scientific evidence that the anthrax in the letters had genetic mutations in common with a strain that he maintained as one of his job responsibilities. But even within his lab there were 10 people who had access, and it also had been shared with several other US institutions. The FBI later admitted they had identified 419 people who had access to the strain.
After Ivins death, the National Academy of Sciences was asked to convene an expert committee to independently review the scientific evidence in the case. One of their findings is that while the genetic mutations showed it may have come from Ivins’ stock, they weren’t necessarily unique. This refutes the key evidence in the FBI case. The final NAS report released in February, 2011 stated that it was impossible to reach a conclusion based on scientific evidence alone. But it came too late. While the review was in progress, the Department of Justice closed the investigation, reiterating the FBI’s determination that Ivins had been the sole perpetrator.
Through all of this, China never appeared on the suspects list - not even the original unculled version. China was never named by any official or in the media in conjunction with the investigation. This should be a little surprising because China had long been identified (with Russia) near the top of the list of countries suspected of having a clandestine offensive bioweapons program. They had the capability, the access to anthrax stock, and – if “Unrestricted Warfare” is at all credible – the motive. The anthrax attacks were uncannily in accordance with the principles promoted in the book: an unconventional weapon able to cause extreme disruption, fear and economic damage, without needing to be excessively lethal. If China wasn’t the culprit, then – like the 9/11 attacks - it surely would make an ideal case study for a future edition of “Unrestricted Warfare”.
The failure to even consider China points to a US foreign policy dilemma at the time. The War on Terror required that all countries be “with us or against us”. Those “against us” were largely perceived to be Islamists and their state sponsors. The US certainly didn’t want China to be in the “against us” column. Politicians and strategists hoped that both China and Russia could be brought into the fold of civilized nations in the global war against terrorist-supporting “failed states”.
China wasn’t seen as a failed state - yet - but it was a state at risk of failing. US strategists were undoubtedly aware of Unrestricted Warfare, and the views of the likes of Chi Haotian, but assumed these were only shared by a fringe faction of hardliners mostly from the military. They hoped that by avoiding confrontation and escalating tensions, they would empower more moderate elements within the leadership. This softly-softly approach is even more evident in the aftermath of SARS.
Was China deliberately kept off the suspects list? Was there even intelligence available at high levels to suggest China may have been responsible? This is purely speculation, but could explain why even today intelligence on biowarfare is suppressed, public opinion manipulated, and investigations avoided.